Japanese Yen to pare its earlier gains as US stock market rally, the chart parttern is showing a classic "head & shouder" pattern, it looks like the Yen is going to further decline to test its 0.9750 support again shortly.
After an volatile intraday struggling on October 16th 2008, S&P 500 index managed to bottomed firmly with 2 legs, standing firm this time, I expect some rally in the coming session, looking toward 1050 area.
Drag by the global demand slow down concern and the rising US Dollar, agricultural commodities have been going south and they are to accelerate as suggested by technical chart, I expect Wheat to head south until $505 level as momentum picking up, same story for Corn, its looking toward $360 area before support kicks in.
Euro's intraday chart is breaking down its support, in a down trend price channel, Euro is looking south toward 1.3200 level.
After the extremly volatile period during the last few weeks, Gold once again getting attention on media as safe haven play.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) announcing 3Q EPS 35 cent, beating estimate. Aftermarket trading up 6%.
Canadian Dollar has been showing little strength and managed tl rallied back to its downward channel, I'm looking for a short opportunity at $0.8800 area.
Boosted by the $9 Billion capital injection from Mitsubishi UFJ, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) surged more than 82% or $8.07 to $17.75. Along with Goldman Sache's 25% gain leading the entire Financial Sector to become the major force or today's stock market soar.
Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) Has been brought up recently as they are one of the few companies with good liquidity. John Tyson, Tyson Foods's Chairman indicated during an interview with Bloomberg that they have been selling some stocks and issuing debts to raise as much as $1.5 billion dollar in cash sitting in the bank and waiting for acquisition opportunity. China's market seem to be attractive in John's eyes as the huge 1.3 billion and growing population might consume more. Tyson Foods is in the defensive sector that usually will survive during economy downturn, frozen foods from Tyson have been selling well in the US market. However Tyson Foods's stock has been tumbling along with others, TSN felt for as much as 50% during 2008, I won't be aggressive to this stock yet until it goes above $14.
Stimulated by the European Government's new agreement over the weekend that guarantees bank refinance and prevent banks from failure, Euro Gapped Up more than 200 point or as much as 1.50% on early Asia trading hour, however, traders should remain cautious as it is at the range on resistence and might very likely to pullback and filled the gap first within a few days.
Same thing as Gold, Japanese Yen futures retreated from earlier gain as US equity market rallied, It was traded up to 1.0288 and quickly retreated to 1.0025, down 0.73%. If US equity market can follow up today's rally, Yen is likely to test its 0.9750 support.
Futures traders won't forget today, as I mentioned earlier, the only thing can stop gold rising is the US equity right now, and that is today. We had a late afternoon dip for the S&P futures yesterday that dropped another 2.5% that pushed gold futures up to $936, however, as the strong rally today for the US equity market, gold quickly felled below the $900 intraday support and just falling like a rock, it dipped to as low as $824.70, that's another $100 swing. Once again, all eyes on US equity market currently, if we can see a follow up next week, gold is likely to fall back to $800 area quickly.
What a day, what a swing on Friday October 10th, US stock market was freaking everybody out,
No doubt we are in recession, I've been paying a little attention to the surrounding, I've been seeing more and more businesses closed down, more and more "For Lease" signs on the busy blvds, busy restraunts during dinner time no longer needed to wait in line for hours in order to get a seat, friends around me (including myself) are cutting their spendings, etc. Analysts on TV are saying its going to take some 700 to 1000 days for retail sector to recover, at the cost of 5000 to 10000 retail businesses inevitably closed down in the next few years. Bottom takes time and process, I'm not expecting a "V" shape recover either, just like last time when the internet bubble burst, it took a whole year for S&P 500 to go out of the bottom range.
Fly to Safe Haven was the tone during the last few hours of the trading day, after the panic selling in US equity market, Gold futures broken out the upside and erased earlier loss from $886 to as much as $928.40, a 4th consecutive day as investors seek a safer place to hide, without significant event coming out soon, the Gold is likely to hit $950 area soon.
Gold has always been a safe haven, and the top hedge toward greenback and US fundamental, recently, the gold has been rising for $150 from its September low as the worsening US fundamental situation outweight the strong dollar rally (BTW, dollar is also the haven when things got terribly wrong, like right now)
All eyes are on US equity market now, the direction of S&P will lead to significant reponse from other commodities, our view on gold? toward the down side with tight stop.
Clear down channel of Crude Oil initiated in mid July after Crude Oil peaked at its record high, crashing global equity market led to slow down in demand for energy and the strong greenback has also been weighing on the crude, it had been in a period that has almost perfect negative correlation to the greenback in 2008 as it march steady higher through out the first half of 2008, recently it is testing the $89 support in the down channel, it can go either way, just like going to casino.
Despite the strong rally of the greenback, Japanese Yen managed to climb approach toward its one year high as investors seek alternative haven to escape from the crashing US equity market. Japan's central bank did not participate the rate cut yesterday which gave the extended rally for Yen. From 0.9600 to 1.0200, that is 600 point spike in just 3 days! Even Jim Rogers said he had been buying foreign currencies such as Yen and Swiss Franc, Yen looks like is due for pull back as soon as the US equity market reliefes.
After yesterday's global coordinated rate cut across 6 major central banks, equity market had struggled the whole day, take a look at the intraday 60 min chart of S&P futures, extremely volatile. At least we are temporarily reliefed from the panic selling we had experienced during the past week.
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