Intraday Digest: Crude Oil Offering Another Buying Opportunity

Crude Oil has been selling off today after hitting $50 per barrel at 09:00 AM EST, selling force has been very strong that pulled the Crude down to $44/barrel level, I think it is another buying opportunity right now. OPEC's production cut usually don't receive much impact, its just pure market speculation.

Intraday Digest: Uncertainty Pressuring US Equity Market

Intraday Digest S&P Futures (CME, ES)

Investors have been waiting for news today, but there is not much signal sent out. Uncertainty toward Fed interest rate decision coming out tomorrow, as well as the uncertainty toward automaker bailout plan have been puressuring the market. E-Mini S&P Futures have dropped more than 3% to 858 level at 15:15PM EST. We will see if the 50% Fibbonacci level will give some support. But I do not think it will go much lower given that we are most likely to get some interest rate cut tomorrow.

Weekly Wrap: Euro Strengthen Against Dollar, Challenging $1.35 Next Week

Weekly Wrap Euro (FX: EURUSD CME: EC)

Euro Rallied more than 5.4% against US Dollar last week as demand for dollar as "safe haven" reduced, US government showed strong signal that they will do whatever they can to stablize the economy. At the same time, traders expected Fed is likely to continue lowering target rate while ECB signaled they might not lowered the rate below 2%.

The Euro currency is approching $1.35 next week, and I expect it will be facing heavy resistence.

Weekly Wrap: All Eyes On US Banks, Next Week Is Key.

Weekly Citigroup (C), Bank Of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo(WFC)

12-13-2008, Another volatile week recorded on tape, banks are still the focus. Dow Jons Bank Index tried rallying on Monday but faced heavy resistence at 250 area, next week will be important if Bank Index break above 250, investors will be more confident.

We also pull out individual bank leaders such as Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo.

Every one of them tried to rally on Monday, JPM and WFC made it above the resistence line, while C and BAC did not, they all turned lower as pressure built up from the anxiety toward auto bail out plan. If we can have Citi stay above $10, Bank of America stay above $20, JP Morgan stay above $35, and Wells Fargo stay above $30 by next a couple weeks, then I'd say we are good, for now. I won't be surprise to see them test their November low again tho.

Story: Madoff Arrested for $50 Billion Scandal

Story Bernard Madoff $50 Billion Fraud

Bernard Madoff, founder of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, was recently arrested for investigation by FBI, when facing law enforcement, Madoff admit that " there is no innocent explanation".

Basically, he ran a hedge fund and paid earlier investors with the money from later investors, the snow ball kept running until it accounts for well over $50 Billion right now.

Intraday Digest: S&P Futures Rallied As Treasury Considering TARP to Aid Automakers

Intraday Digest: 12-12-2008 S&P Futures (ES, CME)

S&P Futures tumbled yesterday to more than 5% as senate rejected bailout plan for automaker, this morning, we had Retail sales came out at -1.8% vs. -2.0% consenses, that was better than estimated, and the US consumer confidence unexpectedly raised from 28 mo low as gasoling price concern eased, furthermore, the good news came from the Treasury Department that they are considering using TARP to rescue automakers that stimulated the entire morning rally of the US equity market. However, there are still minor resistence ahead, one at around 884 area, and the other is the upper resistence trend line, I do expect the market to be able to sustain today's rally and break above 900 by next week.

Intraday Digest: Crude Oil Retreated After Auto Bail Out Plan Failed.

Intraday Digest: 12-12-2008 Friday Crude Oil Futures (QM, NYMEX)

As Senate rejected the US Auto Bail Out Plan yesterday, crude oil tumbled more than 7% and found support at $44.00 area. I think it was abit of over-reaction, keep in mind that consumer used crude oil from auto vehicle only accounts for 6 or 7% of the total crude oil useage, industrial use accounts for some 76% or so, I expect rally coming from crude oil next week, recently crude oil futures has been in very volatile sessions, it is not unusual to see 5%+ movements in intraday session, but given the smaller dollar amount right now, 5% movement at $40/barrel = $2, while 3% movement at $140/barrel backed to July was $4.2! you get my point.

Intraday Digest: US Dollar Index hit support

Intraday Digest 2008-12-12 Friday U.S. Dollar Index (DX)

After opening sharply gapped down on the first trading day this week, the dollar index(DX) tried to fill the gap but failed, and then tumbled all the way down to its downward price channel support. If the dollar index is not going to fill the gap next week, I expect the recent strength of dollar will not sustain.

Intraday Digest: S&P Futures Tumbled After US Auto Bail Out Plan Failed

December 11th, 2008. Equity market failed to break out the 900 level this morning as investors concerned tomorrow's retail sales number, market quickly retreated and broke intraday 884 support, headed south to welcome the US auto bail out plan rejected in the Asia-Pacific session, S&P futures tumbled more than 4.5% pre-market. However, as all the negative news came out already, I expect 816 area to be relatively strong support.

S&P Might Extend Its Gain

Confirmed by the double leg daily chart pattern, the intraday chart of S&P futures is showing a developing upward channel, I expect it to hit the upper band by the end of this week, or early next week. Even though I'm pretty confident at this level, I will still turn to be cautious if the price dip below the red line.